Rodney Johnson | Monday, March 04, 2013 >>
In 2008 I did the unthinkable…
I bought an Apple laptop.
I didn’t want to. Microsoft made me do it. The company introduced Vista, which was the worst operating system I’d dealt with in 25 years of PC experience. I just couldn’t take it anymore, so I braved the Apple store.
I walked in and sheepishly told a 10-year old Apple “Genius” (okay… she was probably 17) that I was new to Apple computing. She welcomed me like a long lost relative and quickly explained how far ahead Apple was of Microsoft.
I had known this for many years, having seen the old bumper sticker “Windows 95 = Macintosh 89” over a decade before.
As I learnrned how to navigate the MacBook it was obvious the genius was right. It could have just been me, but it seemed we were briefly telepathically linked and she was screaming in her mind “We told you so!”
Here at Dent Research, we’re having our own “I told you so!” moment…
Jonathan Last just published a book entitled, “What to Expect When No One’s Expecting, America’s Coming Demographic Disaster.” His point is that the U.S. is going through a baby bust that will have long-term consequences, as already evidenced in Japan and is certainly underway in China.
Looking at the traditionally high birth rate in the U.S., Long notes that most of the high birthrate in recent decades was attributable to immigrants, not the domestic population. Now immigration has slowed dramatically and those arriving on our shores are choosing to have significantly fewer children.
Less children will mean a smaller workforce in years to come, which will lead to an economic slowdown that affects consumption, GDP, tax revenue, governrnment spending, you name it.
We have one sentiment for Mr. Last…
“Welcome. We’re glad you could join us. Better late than never.”
He’s just become a member of the club we have been hosting for more than two decades.
If Windows 95 = Macintosh 89, then Last 2013 = Dent 1988.
Mr. Last is not the only one to join our club, he is simply the latest one to do so. That’s why I’d like to invite him to our live, two-day conference in April where he can learnrn even more about how this demographic trend will affect the U.S. economy and economies around the world.
In addition to writing books, giving speeches, appearing on TV and radio programs, and generally gabbing about demographic trends wherever we go, for the last decade we have held this two-day seminar, twice a year. We take the time to walk through how our economy works… how it’s based on a rising population… and how this will all fall apart in the years to come.
Our attendees have walked away year after year knowing what Mr. Last has now published as new findings.
Birthrates are below replacement level in industrial economies. Check.
The U.S. is different, but it is immigrants that make the difference, and that trend has slowed. Check.
The dearth of births has caused massive shocks to other economies, and will do the same thing here. Check.
By knowing these things years ahead of 2013, the people at our seminars understood how the world around them was changing long before the general public.
The slack consumer demand at the end of the last decade… the housing bust… the call for higher taxes to fund unsustainable social programs… these are all part of our discussion.
From individual investors to financial advisors and business owners, each person gets to walk away more confident in knowing the probable path our economy will take, even if that path is not as rosy as we all would like.
And of course our conference gives everyone who attends something else… the ability to tell other people “I told you so,” which, as you know, can be quite satisfying.
P.S. You’ll find all the details you need for our conference this April here. And I extend the invitation not only to Mr. Long, but to you as well. Join us. We look forward to seeing you there.
Ahead of the Curve with Adam O’Dell
It was at one of Harry’s and Rodney’s Demographics School conferences that I first saw them speak in public. Naturally I had read several of their books, but I’d wanted to see the show in person.