An Economy of Historical Cycles

I love history for its depth and insight, particularly of our economy — It was one of my favorite subjects in college.

I once breezed through a 20-book, encyclopedia-like series called The History of Westernrn Civilization. It took me a few weeks. And I loved every minute of it.

Did I read the whole 10,000 pages? Of course not. I was young and hyper-motivated to make my mark on the world. But I did skim each page carefully. And when I found sections detailing the important changes in our economy — the crashes and declines, the inflation and deflation over 5,000 years — I read those pages in great detail because that’s what really fascinates me.

It’s all about economic cycles.

Most people suggest I find a girlfriend when I start talking about cycles! But you know what? Everyone has their own genius and focus. Well… at least 95% of us do. The other 5% includes my wife’s worst relative.

My brilliance lies in understanding the cycles of history, even beyond economics and demographics.

In turnrn, this gives YOU the power to be financially successful… to win in business… to invest smartly.

Economy (and History) is All Around You

Before I got into economic research in the 1980s, I traveled to Switzerland and Paris. During my trip, I visited the Louvre, but not for the same reason most people do. They go to see the art. I went to see history and cycles… how humanity progressed and then declined. How we moved from arrogance to humility to repentance.

I walked the entire Louvre, in its marvelous historical order, in one day. And if I had to do it again today, with the economic research I’ve done since then, I could show you the key turnrning points in economic and human history simply by how light or dark the paintings were… or how indulgent or repentant the people were.

It’s crystal clear to me.

It’s simply the natural cycles of history.

Since my trip to the Louvre, travel and history have become synonymous to me. And my passion for both remains as intense. I don’t typically go to major cities like New York or San Francisco, London or Tokyo.

No. I want to see the more remote area of the world. That’s where I can see the past living now!

For example, in the rural areas of Indonesia or India you see people living with no electricity and no cars. They live in simple huts or lean-to’s. They have a few goats for milk, a wood clay oven on the floor to cook on, a few oxen to plow the fields. And they have a strong religious culture. No one is overweight because they must walk everywhere for everything they need.

This is how life was around the world a few centuries ago, even thousands of years in some areas. And the most surprising thing is that most of these people are happier than us rich Westernrners because they live such a simple life. Sure, it involves a lot of hard work, but complications and drama don’t have much room in their world.

Each one of these rural areas is like living history. Some more remote tribes in Papua New Guinea (which I’m dying to visit) represent life in the hunting and gathering era, which existed largely before the Agricultural Revolution 10,000 years ago.

The Eskimo and Inuit Indian cultures in Alaska live much like people did when the Americas were first populated 14,000 years ago or so.

Like I said, travel IS history to me. It gives me broader insights into all the various cultures and how we are similar and different to them.

Most importantly, it gives me a clear window into the stages of life that cultures and civilizations undergo as they develop and progress. Knowing this, I can forecast with uncanny accuracy where a state, town or even country will head next as such stages occur in a natural progression.

I can forecast whether it faces a boom or a bust ahead… what the citizens will spend their money on and when.

Ultimately, each trip I make and the more history I learnrn, the more I understand and can predict the four-stage life cycle of everything from economics to business to personal life.

Anyone doing business in, or investing overseas, needs to understand the history and the differences in cultures. That’s even true for those in different regions of the U.S., from Seattle, Washington to Jackson, Mississippi. And there is no better way than going there yourself. Seeing and experiencing it directly, and like Anthony Bourdain on the TV show No Reservations, at the most basic levels possible.

I intend to continue doing so myself. And I’ll report back regularly on the latest insights I’ve gleamed. It’s with these and our continued demographic and economic research that’ll we’ll turnrn the years ahead into profitable ones for you.



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