Peak Irrationality Begging for Disruption

It’s Irrational Economic Summit week! We open the conference on Thursday, in Austin, Texas, and we have a kick-ass line up of speakers. I talked about some of them on Friday in my video.

As has been the case with most of our previous summits, it looks like we nailed the timing on this one! Volatility has stormed onto the scene like an angry wife, markets are teetering on the edge of the abyss (and even Adam O’Dell warnrned us last week that he’s watching some indicators that seem to be turnrning ugly), and the political situation is a cluster…

I’m not surprised, and as I’ll explain on Thursday, today we have a powerful collision of the 250-year Revolution Cycle, this 90-year Great Reset Cycle, an 84-year Populist Revolution Cycle, and a 28-year Financial Crisis Cycle… not to mention a global demographic slowdown across the developed world, and now China since 2011.

But, really, the one we need to pay attention to is that 90-year Bubble Buster. Here’s why…

Andrew Pancholi and I have many cycles in common, coming from different research approaches (which is one of the reasons we wrote Zero Hour together). But he had the 45- and 90-year cycles before I discovered them from my fundamental research in early 2014.

Well, this cycle has morphed into THE most important in this great bubble and reset to come… and perhaps the most important longer term.

It indicates that late 2019 is most likely to be the line in the sand for this bubble to finally start bursting, and possibly sooner.

It would also predict that the next major stock bubble peak would come around 2064 on a seven to nine-year lag to its natural peak around 2055, which I’ll explain more just ahead.

The Next Evolution:

2 X 45 = Bada Boom, Bada Bust! 

Steamships peaked in 1875 and then fell off a cliff as railroads first emerged.

Forty-five years later the same thing happened (in 1920) equally dramatically with railroads as cars first emerged.

Forty-five years later, in 1965, cars saturated households across the board in cities, suburbs, and rural areas. The Interstate Highway system was completed.

Everyone had TVs and homes full of electric appliances.

Women were largely freed from housework and had started entering the workforce in mass (first in World War II out of necessity).

While demographics impacts productivity, I’ve discovered that technologies, and new ways of producing and consuming goods, have the biggest impact on productivity and our standard of living!

Over two 45-year Innovation Cycles (from 1900 to 2000), our standard of living adjusted for inflation went up more than eight times and our life expectancy increased from 47 to 78!

And when you add two of these 45-year cycles together…

You get a doozy of a cycle that impacts massively on practically every aspect of our lives.

In short, every other 45-year cycle is more powerful, building on the one before.

That NOW makes late 2019 the projected peak of this 45- and 90-year cycle.

Expect the next great reset — one to rival the late 1929-32 mega crash cycle (and 1837 to 1842).

Also expect a second Great Depression, this time from around late 2019 into late 2022 for stocks and into 2023-plus for the economy.

And tune in to our Irrational Economic Summit next week via Live Stream because we’re at peak irrationality and our speakers are experts in the disruptors that will change everything.


Harry Dent

Bestselling author and founder of Dent Research, an affiliate of Charles Street Research. Dent developed a radical new approach to forecasting the economy; one that revolved around demographics and innovation cycles.