Presidents Day: Revolutions and Great Leaders

Who do you think of when you think about the great presidents? Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, and Teddy Roosevelt on Mount Rushmore…? Or Franklin Roosevelt, Kennedy, and Reagan?

Bill Clinton once remarked: “I didn’t have enough of a crisis to go down [in history] as a great president.”

You bet he didn’t.

Boom time…

He walked into the best eight years in U.S. history; a boom time I forecast, including the balanced budget, in The Great Boom Ahead… before he was inaugurated.

He’s right though. Great presidents DO come out of crises and political/social revolutions. The American Revolution, the Civil War, the Great Depression.

This chart, from Zero Hour, shows how we’re in the biggest social/political revolution since the advent of democracy itself in the late 1700s (Washington/Jefferson), and the most polarized society since the Civil War (Lincoln).

The last 84-year populist cycle hit in 1933 with Hitler becoming Chancellor of Germany.

The previous 28-year financial crisis hit in 1989 with the S&L crisis.

The last major 250-year revolution hit between 1765 and 1783 with the American Revolution.

All three of these cycles have converged again today.

We living in an historic period…

We won’t realize how historical this period will become and how much change will come from it until decades down the road.

Economic and social progress have been on a tear since the late 1700s and that progress mushroomed the most from the late 1800s forward when Teddy Roosevelt emerged as a great leader.

My most powerful 500-year mega innovation cycle says we’re only half way through this unprecedented economic explosion. So, by all my cycles, the most critical part of this major political revolution, that started with the backlash against globalization and Trump’s populist revolution, is likely to come between 2020 and 2024… in the next administration.

The next great leader in history is very likely to emerge then.

Who wins the 2020 election and which party carries Congress will be critical.


Follow me on Twitter @harrydentjr

Harry Dent

Bestselling author and founder of Dent Research, an affiliate of Charles Street Research. Dent developed a radical new approach to forecasting the economy; one that revolved around demographics and innovation cycles.