Wish I Was There Again

It was at one of Harry’s and Rodney’s Demographics School conferences that I first saw them speak in public. Naturally I had read several of their books, but I’d wanted to see the show in person.

Two things became clear very quickly…

First, Rodney really knows his material. And, he has a knack for connecting with the audience. His use of interesting, real-world examples give life to what would otherwise be boring and complex economic theories. I caught myself became increasingly engaged along with the rest of the audience as Rodney connected the many dots in the organized chaos that is our global economy.

Second, it was immediately evident that Harry knows his cycles better than he knows the back of his hand. With no effort he reached back decades to show how a wave of technological innovations set forth a cyclical boom period. And he warnrned of a present day phenomenon: the topping of a 29-year commodity super-cycle.

His call for the peaking of a multi-decade commodity cycle struck a chord with me…

At the time I’d been watching the PowerShares Commodity Index Fund (ARCX: DBC) closely. Seven months before the conference, the fund had suddenly dropped by more than 10% over the space of one week.

I’d had some warnrning before the plunge of course. My most trusted cycle analysis tool had flashed a warnrning signal on April 29, just one day before DBC peaked at a high of $32.02.

You can see this warnrning signal – the first red dot – in this chart of DBC:

See larger image

After forecasting the April peak, my cycle analysis tool picked up subsequent peaks in June, July and September (also in red). By the time I got to Demographics School that November (highlighted with a blue circle in the chart above) I was already wondering – are commodities done?

Harry answered that question. Not only did he walk through the previous peaks and valleys of the commodity cycle, he explained the fundamental factors weighing heavily on commodity prices back then. His fundamental analysis, and long-term cyclical analysis, neatly synced up with the shorter-term cycle peaks I had started picking up earlier that year.

It’s now well over a year since that session of Demographics School and Harry remains adamant that commodities – particularly gold – faces a grim future. In fact, he forecasts that gold will ultimately slam back down to $750 an ounce before the end of this decade. But not before we see one possible last rally.

He and Rodney will give you the details at Demographic School in April. Do yourself a favor. Be there.